Economic Overview
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Today’s Budget is presented in the context of 4.7% growth in economic output for 2014, and a growth forecast of 3.9% for 2015.
Following seven austerity Budgets the Minister has taken the growth opportunity to loosen the Budget purse strings ever so slightly.
He proposes to reduce tax revenues by €420 million and to increase net voted expenditure by €630 million. However, tax buoyancy from a growing economy counter-balances these adjustments so that the Budget Deficit envisaged in 2015 is reduced by €1,445 million compared to 2014.
The 2015 Budget envisages a Current Budget Deficit of €3.73 billion and a Capital Budget Deficit of €2.75 billion.
Notwithstanding the tax reductions announced today, the improved performance of the economy is providing considerable tax growth so that overall, the Minister projects Tax Revenues of €42.3 billion in 2015, a 3.1% increase on the expected out turn of €41.04 billion for 2014.
On the expenditure side, the increase in the Capital and Current Spend of €215 million and €430 million respectively represents a 5.1% growth in the Capital Budget, and a 0.9% growth in Current Budget spending compared to 2014.
These are very modest changes and reflect the ambitions of the Government not to alter the direction of the public finances for a short term economic impetus.
The dramatic improvement in the Government’s control of public finances is reflected in the Budget Deficit as a % of GDP over each of the last five years and into next year as follows:
| % of GDP | 2010 | 12.2 | 2011 | 10.1 | 2012 | 8.2 | 2013 | 7.3 | 2014 | 3.7 | 2015 (projected) | 2.7 |
The trend is positive, and in the next few years we can at last see the opportunity of balanced budgets, and perhaps a reduction in the overall debt burden.
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